全球房产泡沫哪区最严重?

Posted on 16 Jul 2019
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经济学家Niraj Shah通过自己设计的「房地产泡沫仪表板」评估各个国家的房地产市场状况,其中包含4个指标,即房价租金比、房价收入比、实际房价以及家庭贷款占GDP比重。

评估结果显示,新西兰和加拿大位居「房地产市场最不可持续」榜首。研究认为,这两个国家的房价收入比最高,其后是澳洲、英国、挪威和瑞典。

Shah认为,新西兰的房价租金比是世界最高的,房价收入比也是最高的,分别达到196.8和156.8,而加拿大的实际房价是全球最高的。家庭贷款总额占GDP比重方面,加拿大达到100.7%,新西兰为94%,美国为76.3%,澳洲高达120.3%。

加拿大房地产网站Better Dwelling日前发布了一份关于美国和加拿大房价上涨对比的报告。报告显示,自2000年以来,相对于美国的主要泡沫城市,加拿大几大城市的房价经历了爆炸式增长。

截至2019年3月,多伦多房地产价格同比上涨239.9%;蒙特利尔的房价上涨了189%;最夸张的是温哥华,房价飙升了315%。

多伦多是房地产价格增长速度最快的城市之一,从2000年1月至2019年3月期间,多伦多的房价涨幅比洛杉矶高出33.67%,比旧金山高45.27%,比西雅图高61.01%,比纽约高出133.39%。

Better Dwelling的报告还指出,加拿大对房地产的依赖远超于美国。在2006年的巅峰时期,住宅投资占加拿大GDP约8%,是美国的两倍。

牛津经济研究院(Oxford Economics)在7月初公布的一份研报中指出,随着全球经济增速放缓、投资减少,房地产市场遭遇危机的风险正逐渐增加。

新西兰的房价租金比是世界最高的,房价收入比也是最高的。

新西兰的房价租金比是世界最高的,房价收入比也是最高的。

全球各个主要国家的房地产泡沫和投资热度参差不齐,如果房地产市场再次陷入低迷,那些泡沫较大、热度较高的国家,比如挪威、瑞典、芬兰、丹麦、新西兰、澳洲、英国和加拿大等房价及国内生产总值(GDP)都将遭到重创。

据牛津经济研究院的估算,在市场温和衰退的情况下,上述国家的GDP将下跌0.5%-0.7%;如果危机严重到出现恐慌性抛售,那么GDP的下跌增幅将达1.5%-2.1%。

报告认为,在经合组织国家(OECD)中,目前楼市风险最高的是新西兰、加拿大、瑞典和挪威;其次是澳洲、英国和丹麦;而风险最小则是葡萄牙、日本和意大利。此外,美国、德国等大型经济体国家受到冲击的风险较低。

媒体表示,目前为了抑制房地产泡沫,一些国家已经采取行动。加拿大政府已对外国买家征税,而新西兰则禁止海外购买。当下,这些国家面临的最主要挑战是随着美联储和其他央行准备降息,价格是否会继续上涨。

上周,在美国国会听证会上,美联储主席鲍威尔的发言几乎确定本月将进行十年来的首次降息。

Niraj Shah说:“全球新一轮货币宽松政策可能助长房地产泡沫,虽然各国央行都希望避免全球经济衰退,但宽松的货币政策可能会播下再一次危机的种子。”

文:东方财富网

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